Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan.

United States of America
Household Debt Balance
Quarter-End
Q1:2003 through Q3:2010
Trillions of US Dollars

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports that the US household debt balance has declined to $11.58 trillion as of quarter-end Q3:10. This is down $110.0 billion from quarter-end Q2:10, down $490 billion YoY, and down $922.0 billion from this cycle's peak of $12.50 trillion at quarter-end Q3:08.

United States of America
Household Debt Balance
Quarter-End, Net Change versus Previous Year
Q1:2003 through Q3:2010
Trillions of US Dollars

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The YoY net change in the US household debt balance, as shown immediately above, peaked at $1.3 trillion at quarter-end Q3:06, started declining sharply as of quarter-end Q2:08, and flipped into negative territory at quarter-end Q1:09. The YoY net change has stabilized in a range of roughly -$450.0 billion to -$550.0 billion in the five most recent quarters.

The five key components of the US household debt balance, as defined for this data series, are mortgage indebtedness, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, credit card debt and student loans.

United States of America
"Discouraged Workers"
Monthly
January 2008 through September 2010
Thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The total number of US discouraged workers* has remained stubbornly high during 2010. As shown in the chart above, discouraged workers totaled 1.209 million in September 2010. This exceeded the previous peaks in this cycle of 1.204 million and 1.207 million reported for February and June, respectively.

United States of America
"Discouraged Workers"
Monthly, Net Change versus Previous Year
January 2008 through September 2010
Thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The YoY net change in the number of US discouraged workers in September, as shown immediately above, was +503,000, the largest YoY increase during this cycle. This significantly exceeded the previous cycle-high net change of +473,000 registered in February 2010.

In the view of LRP, this data set provides important evidence that the 2.0% YoY increase in Q3:10 US GDP, reported on October 29, was in no way strong enough to have a meaningful positive impact on the US employment situation.

* US BLS defines discouraged workers as "those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for reasons such as 1) thinks no work available, 2) could not find work, 3) lacks schooling or training, 4) employer thinks too young or old, and 5) other types of discrimination."

Source: Census Bureau, USA.

The chart above shows the year-on-year change in the monthly number of new, privately-owned housing units on which construction was started during January 2008 through June 2010. The chart below shows the monthly number of total starts for the same period. This data is not seasonally adjusted and not annualized.

United States of America
New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started
Monthly
January 2008 through June 2010
Thousands of Units, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Not Annualized

Source: Census Bureau, USA.

US June housing starts - SAAR, or seasonally adjusted annual rate, not shown above - dropped 5.0% MoM and 5.8% YoY to 549,000 units. On a raw, non-adjusted and non-annualized basis, shown above, US June starts fell 4.9% MoM and 8.3% YoY to 54,200 units. For both data sets, the decline in starts was particularly pronounced in the multi-unit structure market. LRP focuses primarily on the non-adjusted, non-annualized data set as being most reflective of real-time, on-the-ground realities regarding both builder and lender confidence.

In the view of LRP, US June housing start data sets reflect a US economic recovery that is currently stagnant.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the year-on-year net change in the number of US nonfarm job openings*, monthly, during January 2008 through May 2010. The chart below shows the raw data from which the YoY change data above was derived. Data in both charts is raw and not seasonally adjusted.

United States of America
Nonfarm Job Openings
Monthly
January 2008 through May 2010
Thousands, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The YoY net change in the number of US nonfarm job openings, as shown in the chart above, was +755,000 in May 2010. This was is a 19.3% MoM decline from the revised +935,000 of April. As noted in a recent LRP Data Focus, this cycle's trough was -1.718 million, recorded in July 2009.

The total number of US nonfarm job openings, as shown in the chart directly above, was 3.207 million in May. This was an 11.9% MoM decline from the revised 3.638 M of April. This cycle's trough of 2.212 million was realized in November 2009. Not shown above, the most recent cyclical peak was 5.132 million achieved in April 2006.

In the view of LRP, this data set reflects a US economic recovery that is currently stagnant.

* Establishments submit job openings information for the last business day of the reference month. A job opening requires that: 1) a specific position exists and there is work available for that position, 2) work could start within 30 days regardless of whether a suitable candidate is found, and 3) the employer is actively recruiting from outside the establishment to fill the position. Included are full-time, part-time, permanent, short-term, and seasonal openings.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the total number of monthly US retail sales of domestic and foreign autos, in thousands of units, during the January 2008 through June 2010 period. The chart below shows the monthly year-on-year change, for the same data set. This data set is not seasonally adjusted.

United States of America
Motor Vehicle Retail Sales - Domestic and Foreign Autos
Monthly, Change versus Previous Year
January 2008 through June 2010
Thousands of Units, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

In June 2010, the total number of domestic and foreign autos sold in the US was 500,000 units, up 43,800 units YoY and down 62,700 units MoM. The current cycle's bottom in the monthly YoY change came in May 2009 when the YoY decline was 314,900 units. Since then, the YoY increase has peaked at 95,500 units in March 2010 and has struggled in the ensuing months, particularly in June.

In the view of LRP, this data set implies a US economic recovery that is currently stagnant.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the year-on-year net change in raw, non-adjusted US nonfarm payroll employment in the private sector, monthly, during January 2008 through June 2010. The chart below shows the raw, non-adjusted data for US nonfarm payroll employment in the private sector, monthly, from which the YoY change data above was derived.

United States of America
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Private Sector
Monthly
January 2008 through June 2010
Thousands of Employees, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

As shown in the chart at the top, the net change in raw US nonfarm payroll private sector employment was -275,000 YoY in June 2010, an improvement from -821,000 YoY in May and -1.2 million YoY in April. This data series bottomed out at -6.8 million YoY in June 2009, and LRP anticipates that it will soon turn positive for the first time since March 2008.

In the view of LRP, this data set continues to imply a sluggish US economic recovery.

(The primary focus of US BLS Employment Situation reports is the net change in nonfarm payroll employment on a month-on-month basis. These month-on-month comparisons are presented as both raw and seasonally-adjusted, the latter compensating for variations in seasonal employment patterns. In the chart at the top, LRP's calculation of the year-on-year change in raw data eliminates the need for a seasonal adjustment and provides a clearer view of on-the-ground employment realities versus seasonally-adjusted month-on-month comparisons.)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows monthly US BLS U-6* unemployment data, seasonally adjusted, for the June 2009 through June 2010 timeframe. The chart below shows U-6 data for the same period, but not seasonally adjusted.

United States of America
Unemployment Rate, US BLS "U-6"
Monthly
June 2009 through June 2010
%, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The seasonally-adjusted US BLS U-6 unemployment rate for June 2010 was 16.5%, down 10 basis points MoM versus 16.6% in May 2010 and flat YoY with the 16.5% reported for June 2009. The non-adjusted U-6 unemployment rate for June 2010 was 16.7%, up 60 basis points MoM versus 16.1% in May 2010 and down 10 basis points YoY versus 16.8% in June 2009.

Economic data that is not seasonally adjusted is typically more volatile over time, but usually provides an enhanced view of circumstances "on the ground" during a specific period or at a specific point in time. Accordingly, current US BLS U-6 unemployment data that is not seasonally adjusted provides a window into the real-time qualitative environment for US workers, whether employed or not, and their ability to make fixed monthly mortgage and auto loan payments, as well as their willingness to make new durables purchases and discretionary expenditures for travel, restaurants and other forms of entertainment and leisure. In this sense, in the opinion of LRP, the on-the-ground employment situation for US workers deteriorated notably during June 2010. As such, the prospects for a consumer-led US economic recovery, as government stimulus programs are wound down, have, in our view, diminished.

* "U-6": Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan.

Source: Eurostat.

The chart above shows the year-on-year percent change in the level of industrial production, working day adjusted, for selected European Union and Euro Area economies, and for the EU and EA on average.  Norway, also included above, is a member of neither the Union nor the Area, but is fully integrated into the European economy with more than 70.0% of its exports shipped to other European countries. For the same economies, the chart below shows the YoY percent change in consumer prices.

European Union and Euro Area, Selected Economies
Consumer Price Inflation
Monthly, Change versus Previous Year
May 2010
Percent

Source: Eurostat.

Germany and The Netherlands are currently experiencing an impressive rate of YoY growth in industrial production. Both economies are also achieving a low rate of consumer price inflation.

Notably, three European economies, the UK, Norway, and Greece are at risk for stagflation. The public spending and sovereign debt problems of the UK and Greece are well documented. While sovereign debt is not currently an issue for Norway, that country's private debt levels are notably high. Ireland currently faces the dual challenge of weak industrial production and declining prices. Industrial production for Hungary is robust, but inflation remains a serious threat.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the year-on-year net change in the number of US nonfarm job openings*, monthly, during January 2008 through April 2010. The chart below shows the raw data from which the YoY change data above was derived. Data in both charts is raw and not seasonally adjusted.

United States of America
Nonfarm Job Openings
Monthly
January 2008 through April 2010
Thousands, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The YoY net change in the number of US nonfarm job openings was +731,000 in April 2010, as shown in  the chart at the top. This represented a decisive improvement from +116,000 in March and -150,000 in February. This cycle's trough was -1.718 million, recorded in July 2009. Given that this data set serves as a leading indicator among employment data sets, its cyclical trough has occurred sooner than the cyclical inflection points occurring in other employment-related data sets monitored by LRP.

As shown in the chart directly above, the total number of US nonfarm job openings was 3.434 million in April, representing continued improvement since this cycle's November 2009 trough of 2.212 million. Not shown above, the most recent cyclical peak was 5.132 million achieved in April 2006.

* Establishments submit job openings information for the last business day of the reference month. A job opening requires that: 1) a specific position exists and there is work available for that position, 2) work could start within 30 days regardless of whether a suitable candidate is found, and 3) the employer is actively recruiting from outside the establishment to fill the position. Included are full-time, part-time, permanent, short-term, and seasonal openings.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the year-on-year net change in the number of US discouraged workers*, monthly, during January 2008 through May 2010. The chart below shows the raw data from which the YoY change data above was derived. This data set is released in raw, non-adjusted, form only.

United States of America
"Discouraged Workers"
Monthly
January 2008 through May 2010
Thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

As shown in the chart at the top, the YoY net change in the number of US discouraged workers was +291,000 in May 2010.  This was down from the net increases reported in each of the previous four months. To date, this cycle's peak in the net YoY change in the number of US discouraged workers was +473,000 in February 2010.

The total number of US discouraged workers, as shown in the chart directly above, was 1.083 million in May, notably lower than both the April figure of 1.197 million and the cycle's peak, to date, of 1.204 million in February 2010.

In general, LRP views the May 2010 US BLS Employment Situation report as modestly positive, and indicative of a sluggish economic recovery. US employment data appears to have "turned the corner" during the past two to three months, but the rate of improvement in on-the-ground employment realities remains slow.

* US BLS defines discouraged workers as "those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for reasons such as 1) thinks no work available, 2) could not find work, 3) lacks schooling or training, 4) employer thinks too young or old, and 5) other types of discrimination."

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the year-on-year net change in the number of US unemployed who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more, monthly, during January 2008 through May 2010. The chart below shows the raw data from which the YoY change data above was derived. Data in both charts is raw and not seasonally adjusted.

United States of America
Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over
Monthly
January 2008 through May 2010
Thousands, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The YoY net change in the number of US unemployed who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more, as seen in the chart at the top, was +2.672 million in May 2010.  This represented an improvement from +3.119 million in April and +3.377 million in March. This data series topped out at +3.681 million YoY in January 2009. Not shown in the chart at the top, the most recent month in which the US economy has achieved a YoY decline in the number of unemployed who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more was August 2007.

As seen directly above, this cycle's peak, to date, in the number of US unemployed who have been unemployed  for 27 weeks or more was 7.020 million in April 2010.

In general, LRP views the May 2010 US BLS Employment Situation report as modestly positive, and indicative of a sluggish economic recovery.

(The primary focus of US BLS Employment Situation reports is the net change in data on a month-on-month basis. These month-on-month comparisons are presented as both raw and seasonally-adjusted, the latter compensating for variations in seasonal employment patterns. In the chart at the top, LRP's calculation of the year-on-year change in raw data eliminates the need for a seasonal adjustment and provides a clearer view of on-the-ground employment realities versus seasonally-adjusted month-on-month comparisons.)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the year-on-year net change in raw, non-adjusted US nonfarm payroll employment in the private sector, monthly, during January 2008 through May 2010. The chart below shows the raw, non-adjusted data for US nonfarm payroll employment in the private sector, monthly, from which the YoY change data above was derived.

United States of America
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Private Sector
Monthly
January 2008 through May 2010
Thousands of Employees, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The net change in raw US nonfarm payroll employment in the private sector, as shown in the chart at the top, was -831,000 YoY in May 2010, an improvement from -1.1 million YoY in April and -2.2 million YoY in March. This data series bottomed out at -6.8 million YoY in June 2009, and LRP anticipates that it will soon turn positive for the first time since March 2008.

In general, LRP views the May 2010 US BLS Employment Situation report as modestly positive, and indicative of a sluggish economic recovery.

(The primary focus of US BLS Employment Situation reports is the net change in nonfarm payroll employment on a month-on-month basis. These month-on-month comparisons are presented as both raw and seasonally-adjusted, the latter compensating for variations in seasonal employment patterns. In the chart at the top, LRP's calculation of the year-on-year change in raw data eliminates the need for a seasonal adjustment and provides a clearer view of on-the-ground employment realities versus seasonally-adjusted month-on-month comparisons.)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the seasonally adjusted month-on-month net change in US nonfarm payroll employment in the private sector during January 2008 through May 2010. The chart below shows the same data set, but not seasonally adjusted.

United States of America
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Private Sector
Monthly, Net Change versus Previous Month
January 2008 through May 2010
Thousands of Employees, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The focus of the US BLS Employment Situation report for May 2010 was the number of new jobs created, net, by the US economy's private sector.  As shown in the chart at the top, the private sector created a seasonally adjusted 41,000 new jobs, net, during the month of May. This compared with a seasonally adjusted 158,000 and 218,000 new jobs created, net, by the private sector during March and April, respectively. As indicated by the raw, non-adjusted data in the chart directly above, the private sector created 711,000 new jobs, net, during the month of May.  This compared with 727,000 and 1.1 million new jobs created, net, during March and April, respectively.

In sum, LRP views the May 2010 US BLS Employment Situation report as modestly positive, and indicative of a sluggish economic recovery.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The chart above shows the seasonally adjusted month-on-month net change in US nonfarm payroll employment for January 2008 through May 2010. Below is monthly US BLS U-6* unemployment rate data, not seasonally adjusted, for May 2009 through May 2010.

As shown above, the US economy added 431,000 net nonfarm payroll employees during May, 411,000 of which were temporary US government census workers. The private sector added 41,000 net employees during May indicating that the net MoM change in US non-farm payrolls, normalized, remained positive in May.

United States of America
Unemployment Rate, US BLS "U-6"
Monthly
May 2009 through May 2010
%, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA.

The broad U-6 US unemployment rate, not seasonally adjusted, as shown above, declined 50 basis points MoM in May to 16.1%. LRP views the non-adjusted U-6 data as being more representative of on-the-ground realities for US workers and their ability to make fixed monthly mortgage and auto loan payments, as well as their willingness to make new durables purchases and discretionary expenditures for travel, restaurants and other forms of entertainment and leisure.

In sum, LRP views the May 2010 US BLS Employment Situation report as modestly positive, and indicative of a sluggish economic recovery.

* "U-6": Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

Source: Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan.

Source: Census Bureau, USA.

US crude oil imports continue to play an important role in the persistence of the US trade deficit. In March 2010, as shown above, the value of US crude oil imports accounted for 55.1% of the total US trade deficit. This was up sharply from 45.0% MoM and 41.6% YoY.

United States of America
Crude Oil, Average Cost of Imports
Monthly
March 2009 through March 2010
US Dollars per Barrel (1 barrel = 42 US gallons)

Source: Census Bureau, USA.

As shown in the chart above, the average cost per barrel of US crude oil imports was US$74.32 in March 2010, up 1.9% MoM from US$72.92 and up 79.7% YoY versus US$41.36. During the March 2009 through January 2010 timeframe, as shown below, monthly US crude oil imports generally trended downward. During February and March, though, import volume was up 9.8% MoM and 11.2% MoM, respectively.

United States of America
Crude Oil, Imports
Monthly
March 2009 through March 2010
Barrels per Day, Millions (1 barrel = 42 US gallons)

Source: Census Bureau, USA.